About a week and a half ago I previewed the bottom half of the Atlantic Ten. This time I look into the top half of the conference. These are the teams that you should count on seeing in the postseason.
*Charlotte 49ers
Coming off a 2004 NCAA Tournament
appearance, Charlotte
looked to become an instant force in the Atlantic Ten. In their inaugural 2005-2006 season, Charlotte posted a
respectable 11-5 conference record. 2006-2007
saw a drop-off for Bobby Lutz’s team, going 7-9 in conference. Last season Lutz had his team back in form as
Charlotte stood
4-1 in A-10 play heading into February. A
month later, they were at a disappointing 6-7 conference record. Then star guard Leemire Goldwire turned things
on, averaging just under 23 points a game in Charlotte’s final three Atlantic Ten regular
season games that led the 49ers into the Atlantic 10 Tournament on a roll. An amazing comeback win over Massachusetts (most likely knocking the Minutemen out of
the NCAA Tournament) led Charlotte to the
semi-finals where they fell to eventual champion Temple.
Goldwire led the way with just under 22 points per game in the Atlantic
Ten Tournament. Unfortunately for Charlotte, Goldwire ended his career with only six points
in an NIT first round loss at Nebraska. Heading into their fourth Atlantic 10 season,
Charlotte looks
to replace Goldwire’s 18.6 points per game.
Seniors Lamont Mack and Charlie Coley, along with Sophomore An’Juan
Wilderness will provide a lift in the frontcourt, but the real task will be in
finding consistent guard play. Michael Gerrity left the program earlier this
month, leaving the 49ers with four guards averaging a combined 14.5 points per
game last season, four points less than
Leemire Goldwire. But if Lutz can find
the consistency at guard, his 49ers could have their best A-10 season to date.
*6.
*Dayton Flyers
There is not one Atlantic Ten
coach who needs a big season more than Brian Gregory. He had a successful first season in 2003-2004
taking over for Oliver Purnell. He led
the Flyers to an NCAA Tournament berth.
Since then, the Flyers have largely been a disappointment, earning only
one postseason appearance in which they lost in the NIT quarterfinals to Ohio State
last season. Last season should have been Gregory’s big year, but
injuries to Charles Little and superstar freshman Chris Wright sent the Flyers
from 14-1 to 23-11. Heading into this
season, the Flyers will be without arguably the greatest guard in UD history,
Brian Roberts and his near 2,000 career points.
The good news for Dayton
though is the talent that remains. The
Flyers have some excitement coming into the 2008-2009 season. Sophomore Chris Wright is back and
healthy. Junior Marcus Johnson averaged
14.1 points per game in the Flyers last seven games last year. Gregory has a solid recruiting class coming
in. However, like Charlotte, the Flyers need to get consistency
out of other guards to make up for the loss of Brian Roberts. If junior guards London Warren, as well as
incoming freshman Paul Williams play well, and if senior Charles Little
improves off his 8 points per game and 4.4 rebounds per game, the Flyers could
do some serious damage in this conference.
But if the Flyers keep losing to conference rival Xavier (six straight
losses) and keep disappointing in the league in general (24-29 in the past
three seasons), Brian Gregory could be looking for a new job.
*5.
Saint Louis
Billikens*
Saint Louis made some of the biggest news
last off-season. No, they didn’t land a
top ten recruit. They landed a major
head coach in Rick Majerus. The problem,
however, was that Majerus was dead set on changing the system that had been in
place. Star guards Tommie Liddell and
Kevin Lisch both had production drop offs from the prior season. That led the Billikens to a disappointing 7-9
Atlantic Ten record and no postseason.
So some maybe wondering why the Billikens are so high on the preseason
list. There are quite a few
reasons. The biggest reason is that
Kevin Lisch and Tommie Liddell are great guards. Both guards are already 1,000+ point
scorers. Both have had a season in Rick
Majerus’ new system. Both will be
looking to end their Billiken career with a bang. Also, Rick Majerus has had a season to
recruit. Coming in this season will be
near seven-foot center and Rivals.com #107 recruit, Brett Thompson. Last, but not least, the Billikens finally
have an on-campus home, the state-of-the-art Chaifetz Arena. Still, there are a lot of questions coming
into the 2008-2009 season for the Billikens.
There is no question that they have the talent. It will just be a matter of getting
everything to click this season. If that
happens, Saint Louis
could be the surprise team of the league.
If not, the Billikens could slide further down the standings.
*4.
**St. Joseph’s
Hawks*
Other than the days of Jameer
Nelson and Delonte West, St. Joe’s is usually nowhere near the top of the
league when it comes to athleticism. But
they are always near the top of the league when it comes to consistency. Since 2001-2002, the Hawks have won 91 league
games (including post-season). That’s an
average of 13 victories a year. Also,
since that 2002 season, the Hawks have only had one Rivals.com Top 150
recruit. That man was Ahmad Nivins in
2005. And he’s back for his last season
as a Hawk. He averaged 14.4 points per
game last season and was one of the top big men in the conference. Also coming back is the backcourt of Tasheed
Carr and Darrin Govens (combined 20.6 points per game, combined 8 assists per
game). The bad news for the Hawks is
that Pat Calathes (all conference first team) and Rob Ferguson (11.9 points per
game), two big men who could shoot or play in the low post, are gone. That would be a problem for most Atlantic Ten
teams. But not St. Joe’s. Head Coach Phil Martelli is a basketball
miracle worker and always finds a way to get the most out of his teams. This year should be no different. With loads of talent still in stock from last
year’s NCAA Tournament appearance, the Hawks will look to capitalize and make
another March run. Don’t be surprised if
they do. It wouldn’t be Martelli’s first
time.
*3. Massachusetts
Minutemen*
UMass should have been in the NCAA
Tournament last season. They had
non-conference wins over Syracuse, Boston College
and Houston. They beat Dayton
once and Rhode Island
twice in conference. They finished 10-6,
well enough for third place behind Temple
and Xavier. Then Leemire Goldwire of Charlotte took control of
their quarterfinal match-up in the Atlantic Ten Tournament. UMass led 36-17 at the half. Goldwire had only five points. Then UMass gave up 50 second half points, 19
to Goldwire. The defeat, however, which
would have crippled most teams, seemed to refocus UMass. They made an impressive NIT run all the way
to the title game before falling to Ohio
State. The Minutemen off season seemed to parallel
that Charlotte
game. Head Coach Travis Ford turned down
several high profile coaching jobs to stay with the Minutemen. Then in a shocking twist, Ford bolted to Oklahoma State.
Now it’s up to new Head Coach Derek Kellogg to refocus UMass. They will be without Atlantic Ten Player of
the Year Gary Forbes, as well as versatile forward Etienne Brower. But the Minutemen have arguably the best backcourt
in the league, and one of the best in the country. The senior tandem of Chris Lowe and Ricky
Harris (combined 30 points per game) will lead the way back to the
postseason. They’ll be joined by
Rivals.com Top 150 recruit in point guard David Gibbs, which gives UMass even
more depth at guard. Derek Kellogg has
all the tools in place to take UMass back to the NCAA Tournament for the first
time since 1998 and put UMass firmly back at the top of the conference.
*2.
*Temple Owls
Fran Dunphy is bringing Temple back to where they
belong: the national spotlight, the NCAA Tournament, fighting for the top of
the Atlantic 10. Last season saw the
Owls win the Atlantic Ten Tournament title for the first time since 2001. With the duo of Dionte Christmas and Mark Tyndale,
it should have been no surprise that Temple
would be in that position. But it was a
surprise. Temple was 6-8 on January 13^th^. They finished the season by going 12-4,
earning the second overall seed in the Atlantic 10. Fran Dunphy is primed to lead the Owls to a
repeat performance. Yes, Mark Tyndale is
gone. But Dionte Christmas is back. And anytime a team brings back a guard as talented
as Christmas, they are bound to be dangerous.
The senior has a legitimate chance to break 2,000 career points and will
look to increase his 19.7 points per game.
Sophomore guard Lavoy Allen will look to have a breakout year after
putting up 8.1 points in his debut season.
Temple
also brings back guard Ryan Brooks (8.6 points per game). They will challenge UMass with depth at
guard, and will play a similar exciting, run-and-gun style. It took time for things to click last season,
but this year Temple should start rolling from the
word go. Temple should be back in the NCAA Tournament
again this season, and with a star senior guard, could do some damage come
March.
*1.
**Xavier
Musketeers*
As Ric Flair always said, “To be
the man, you gotta beat the man.” Well,
Xavier is and has been ‘the man’ ever since joining the conference in 1995. They’ve won four conference tournaments and
have won or shared six regular season championships. They’ve appeared in the NCAA Tournament nine times
since joining the league. They had the
2003 National Player of the Year in David West. They are also only one of nine
teams in the country to make two “Elite Eight” appearances in the last five
seasons. They have been the epitome of consistency
and will look to capitalize on last year’s “Elite Eight” appearance and first
30 win season in school history. Not all
things are perfect for the Musketeers though.
The senior trio of Josh Duncan, Stanley Burrell and Drew Lavender graduated. That leaves the Musketeers looking for
answers, primarily at the guard position.
Luckily for reigning Atlantic Ten coach of the year Sean Miller, the
corps of freshmen and sophomore guards should step in and pay dividends. Sophomore guard and former Rivals.com Top 150
recruit Dante Jackson will see more minutes this year. The hole left by Drew Lavender at point guard
is the biggest question mark, but Miller has brought in guards Terrell Holloway
(Rivals.com #100), Mark Lyons (Rivals.com #103) and Brad Redford
to fight for minutes. Better news for
Musketeer fans is that the front line should be the best it has been in some
years. Forwards C.J. Anderson (10.7
points per game, 5.9 rebounds per game), potential NBA first round draft pick Derrick
Brown (10.9 points per game, 6.5 rebounds per game), and guard/forward B.J.
Raymond (9.9 points per game) all return.
Sophomore forward and Tulsa transfer
Jamel McLean (6.0 points per game, 4.8
rebounds per game in 2006-2007) is eligible.
Miller also added Kenny Frease (Rivals.com #41) at center to go along
with Jason Love (6.0 points per game, 5.5 rebounds per game). The mixture of an experienced front line, a
Top 25 recruiting class and arguably the best coach in the league will keep
Xavier at the top of the league and back in the NCAA Tournament. And unless someone else steps up, Xavier
looks to continue to be ‘the man’ for years to come.

